how to calculate first pitch strike percentage

Check Powered by Discourse, best viewed with JavaScript enabled. Lets take a closer look at FpK% to see how strongly it is correlated with the common pitching metrics you will find at our site. Ive never used PutAway% in any analysis and frankly am not very familiar with it. So he threw about 41% of his pitches for balls. I want to differentiate between a 10-pitch, 3-batter inning and a 20-pitch, 5 batter inning that both result in 0 runs. Right now, he walks too many batters so this seems like a good metric to start with. Talking percentages and stats to a youngster kind-a goes in one ear and out the other. D.A. They provide vital information for troubleshooting problems and improving the visitor experience. Big FpK% decliners from one year to the next tend to recoup those losses in the third year, but there is a slightly greater tendency for the decliners to revert back to their prior career FpK% norms. Annual comprehensive look at each team's top minor leaguers, The titles and awards the have been given to BHQ. Now, divide the rise by the . For guys whose FpK% fell by more than 5 points from one season to the next, all but one saw their FpK% rebound the following season, although it was slightly more common for their FpK% to revert to their prior career FpK% norms: Expanding this FpK% decline threshold to -3 points or greater, we found that 40 starting pitchers saw such an erosion from one season to the next between 2010 and 2013. Our research here will show that first-pitch strike rate (FpK%)the percentage of first-pitch strikes a pitcher throwscan serve this purpose. And for the last 6 years, for over 39,000 pitches, the average was 60.9%. Studies have shown that the pitcher has an edge in the at-bat after delivering a strike on the first pitch, which hinders the hitter's probability of getting on base. In 2017, he had a 72.4% Contact%, 16.2% SwStr%, and 39.8% O-Swing% that are all similar to his career rates. . But it's more than just that, too, because Molina is also following along with a different trend. Levels of Control rate can be predicted based on levels of FpK%. First pitch strike leading to out or strike one: 92.8 % (compared to 92.7% at MLB level) Percentage of strikeouts starting with first pitch strikes: 66.8 % (68% in MLB) Percentage of walks starting with first pitch balls: 74.3 % (70% in MLB) Overall first pitch strike percentage: 58.4 % (57% in MLB) Typically GBO/FBO percentages are used to tell if a pitcher is a pitcher induces balls hit on the ground or in the air, but youre saying something different. how to calculate first pitch strike percentage how to calculate first pitch strike percentage The most simple way to gauge this would be to count the pitches batters swing and miss on. I suppose another way to chart this would be average pitches per batter since the problem were trying to solve is that hes running his counts too high, probably just over 5 pitches per batter, which is limiting his innings. Craig Burley, "The Hardball Times", Oct. 15, 2004, ", natsstats, "Federal Baseball", Feb. 8, 2010, ", Jack Magruder, "Fox Sports Arizona", Aug. 6, 2010, ", Craig Burley's 2004 study in The Hardball Times, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=First-pitch_strike&oldid=1026785666, Articles with unsourced statements from May 2014, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, The 20 lowest ERAs by MLB starters in 2009 are plotted in black, Pitchers who were on the Nationals roster at the time of the article's creation are in red (minimum 15 innings pitched in 2009), This page was last edited on 4 June 2021, at 07:07. There are plenty of power hitters that make a 70% contact rate work, but they make up for it by hitting the ball really hard to inflate their BABIPs. https://www.weinsteinbaseball.com/strikes/, https://www.federalbaseball.com/2018/5/12/17346140/max-scherzer-strikes-out-11-retires-final-15-diamondbacks-hitters-he-faces-in-nationals-3-1-win, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml, http://dynastysportsempire.com/the-2016-sabermetric-statistic-leaders/, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrky01.shtml, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml, https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2018/Who-Has-the-Best-Eye-in-Baseball, Cookie Preferences | Privacy Policy | Software Plugins, We use cookies to improve our site, personalize content and serve more relevant advertising on other platforms. http://www.infosports.com/scorekeeper/images/pitching12a.pdf. I agree that kids should be exposed to some stats, if they are the right ones. In 2017, he ranked 26th in first pitch strike percentage. Pavano (3.28) had the highest ERA of the three, with Halladay and Lee both carrying ERAs below 2.50.[4]. FPS Mean in Baseball. The first pitcher, the "strike one" pitcher, has an expected ERA (earned run average) of about 3.60. > WeinsteinBaseball.com/Book, Major league pitchers throw approximately. Say a pitcher throws 80 pitches, of which 30 are balls (simply added up from the chart, which is not kept in great detail). This means that as a starting pitchers first-pitch strike rate increases, so too will his BPV. What youre doing is the same thing I do when Im trying to prove/disprove something by using numbers. Matt Carpenter, who also had one of the lowest chase rates in baseball, had the lowest Swing% at 34.1%. how to calculate first pitch strike percentage On Base Percentage Definition In baseball statistics, on base percentage (OBP) is a measure of how often a batter reaches base for any reason other than a fielding error, fielder's choice, dropped/uncaught third strike, fielder . Gallo doesnt care about average; he just wants to hit dingers. Cricket Calculators. Im going to start playing with some of the phone apps to track his pitches myself from now on. Note: The pitcher WAR section of the Library is still in need of revision! On Base Percentage Calculator | OBP Calculator - MiniWebtool by Retrosheet. He'll also pitch about 12% fewer innings (without taking into account the higher pitch counts that would result from starting 1-0).". Hughes backed up his comments with statistics. Im not sure if this adds to the topic, but I thought I would chime in from a youth umpires perspective on the strike zone. But the so, everything else that has a reason or not, does and doesnt, has me stumped. This stat is more straightforward in its calculation. Teach em young to try to get the batters to hit the ball, not miss it, You wouldnt believe how much time HS coaches spend trying to get their pitchers to pitch to contact. Harvey's walk rate is down to 2.2 per nine, and he entered Wednesday ranking 18th in the Majors with 66.9-percent first-pitch strikes, according to FanGraphs. We believe that command and control and makeup are true separators in the pitching category. I get where youre going with this, but if F-Strike includes balls put in play (btw, do you count HR in this?) Well start with O-Swing%, or Chase Rate, as I like to call it. How to Calculate the Percent of Pitch on Concrete Slopes Select relievers (below) threw 4,434 strikes (65%) out of 6,787 total pitches. I always find it somewhat surprising that the number of total errors doesnt quite coincide with the number of unnecessary pitches. A pitch that either is a called ball by the umpire or hits a batter is a ball. It's very important to get that first pitch over in every at-bat. There is a moderate-to-strong negative correlation between control rate and FpK%, meaning as a SPs first-pitch strike rate goes up, his walks are likely to go down. 660 pitchers threw at least 48% strikes. But heres the bottom line. It is in control of the pitcher. How do you define whiffs (in Whiff%). Fantasy Basketball: Fringe Report Shabazz Napier, Fantasy NASCAR Driver Profiles: Chevrolets (2023). Its not that those numbers wouldnt have any validity at the lower levels, but there were few willing to go through the drudgery of compiling and presenting them. Twitter blowing up about 7th grade rankings, Other Softball Gear and Training Tools for Sale. This is extreme, but if a big league pitching staff improved their first pitch strike percentage from 57% to 80%, it would translate into one 100 fewer runs allowed over the course of a season. In fact, our initial research on stats and skills by starting pitcher ball-strike counts confirms the significant positive impact on a pitcher that starts the count 0-1. So lets take things step by step to see what we can to do prove or disprove your perception. But if the league throws too many meatballs on 0-0 counts, batters should swing more. Im just trying to give him a quantifiable measure of his success he can use. Also, in that season, he had a career high in wins, starts, innings pitched, and strike outs along with career best ERA and WHIP. At 11, I think a kid should be able to recognize that, and if they have the control, use it. For the purpose of pitch counts and strike percentage we count a strike as a strike whether it is a foul ball with two strikes, a swing at a pitch at eye level, curveball in the dirt or just a bad call by the ump. The top Strike to-Ball Percentage was 69% thrown by 7 pitchers, 68% by 10 pitchers. You almost have to call a big strike zone to, in order to get people to swing. When a SP's first-pitch strike rate increases, his walks and WHIP are very likely to go down. Sources and more . I think most of us would agree that velocity is not an appropriate stat for an 11yo since it would probably encourage bad behavior. But you said something that bothers me a great deal. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding. Now for the next one, he is very difficult to hit. He seems to be searching for answers as to why things happen the way they do, rather than just accepting that they happen, and to me thats a great thing. Enter the span (also known as gable side width), and the rise above the base line. Its no surprise that Dickerson also walked at a well below average rate of 5.6%. The closest thing I do to that is calculating unnecessary pitches. His ERA is completely misleading in that regard. A GROUND BALL is a batted ball that rolls or bounces close to the ground. Here are the equations you may use to solve for the length of the slope and the rafter: rafter = rise + run (this formula is from the Pythagorean theorem) rise / run = pitch, (use this when you express the pitch in percent) pitch = tan (angle), (use this when you express the angle of the roof pitch in degrees) When a pitcher starts an at-bat with a strike, there is a 92.7% statistical chance that at-bat will result in an out, and the number of strike outs that start with a first pitch strike is 69%; moreover, the percentage of at-bats that began with a first pitch ball sits at 70%. The Value of 1st Pitch Strikes | Weinstein Baseball Good question though. Its critically important to have more than one pitch (ideally separated by ~10 MPH) that you can use on these 0-0 counts. So to me what it does is adds to a players overall knowledge base, so that hopefully one day hell be able to count on more than his gut to make decisions. I, And good point about my expression difficult to hit. A total of 82 starting pitchers threw at least 40 IP in each season from 2010 to 2013. Sure enough, if I calculate the average Swing% of all hitters in the sample, I get 46.1% for BIS, 45.6% for PITCHf/x and 45.7% for my calculations. Im looking for a simple metric to chart my sons efficiency. by . He's swinging at the first pitch -- the ones in the strike zone, anyway -- at nearly a career high, nearly two-thirds of them. The one for our team shows individuals, but the next page shows teams, and that can be very illuminating. The league average here is 37.6 percent and the standard deviation is a whopping 11.0. They are capable of much better if we just look at the (3-0) strike percentage, which is 80%. For the almost 6,100 pitches I scored this season alone, 62.6% was average. I get it that we believe different things, i.e. The ERA line is at 4.20, which was the 2009 National League average. khloe kardashian hidden hills house address Danh mc That's a big reason why he's 4-0 with a 1.28 ERA and almost pitched a perfect game against the White Sox on Tuesday night. But I consider that part of the learning experience. Its his composition in the rough of how his body moves, his adapting to situations under his control, and his enjoyment of the game thatll take him today and beyond. But if the Royals took the first pitch for a strike, after . I would focus on having simple smooth mechanics and hope that translates into strikes. From Little League on, young pitchers are encouraged to "get ahead." FPS: First pitch strikes; FPS%: First pitch strike percentage; FPSO%: % of FPS at-bats that result in an out; FPSW%: % of FPS at-bats that result in a walk; FPSH%: % of FPS at-bats that result in a hit 3: At bat with 3-or-fewer pitches 3: At bat with 3-or-fewer pitches When a SP's first-pitch strike rate increases, his walks and WHIP are very likely to go down. For example, a pitcher with a FpK% of 60% (average level for a starting pitcher) is expected to have a 2.9 Ctl. There are really only 3 different possibilities for a ball being put in play. Pitcher F-Strike% Leaders | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball 41 139 = 0.295. A pitcher throwing 50% strikes will not be pitching for me. If you throw a first pitch strike, you have an 80% chance of throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes & if you throw a first pitch ball, your percentages fall to 30%. Davis, FACTS/FLUKES: Machado, Gallen, McMahon, Lauer, Longoria, BATTERS: Hitters to track in the spring, 2023, ARSENAL REPORT: Baseball Savant Tutorial #4: Search Function, RELIEVERS: Things to watch during Spring Training, RELIEVERS: NFBC ADPs take control of your draft, ROTISSERIE: The Tryhard Auctioneer - Nomination strategy, ROTISSERIE: Quantifying Risk - Building Your Risk Budget, HEAD-TO-HEAD: A Review of the 2023 Hitter Pools, HEAD-TO-HEAD: Identifying Consistent SP Targets for 2023, HEAD-TO-HEAD: Batter consistency check-up, ALTERNATIVE: 2023 Strat-O-Matic Ratings Guide - Pitchers, ALTERNATIVE: 2023 Strat-O-Matic Ratings Guide - Hitters, ALTERNATIVE: Scoresheet 2023 Defensive Range and Eligibility Changes, NFBC: Exploring the benefits of structured drafting, research in 2013 on swinging strike rates, stats and skills by starting pitcher ball-strike counts, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. I use the 70% threshold as the mark where I start to worry about a player making too little contact. Youth Pitching Stats that Matter Most - Spiders Elite That makes it pretty simple to track. Expect more studies and applications of FpK% in the coming months. Harvey's walk rate is down to 2.2 per nine, and he entered Wednesday ranking 18th in the Majors with 66.9-percent first-pitch strikes, according to FanGraphs. Despite his lower first-pitch strike percentage, he managed to finish 3rd in the strikeout race in 2014 with 252 strike outs in 220 innings. These are the pitches you can drive, and if youre missing on a lot of pitches in the zone (which should be the easiest pitches to hit), youre going to struggle to hit for average. We also collect stats on opponents you've played. A strike zone formula and plate discipline stats Understanding this now, it makes sense that Carpenter was fourth in MLB in BB% at 17.5%, and Avisail Garcia was 24th worst in BB% at 5.9%. While all walks and HBPs are bad, some are worse than others, with the ones that score being the worst. So there is something slightly different about. You are using an out of date browser. The numbers are from this seasons HS team. Heres how Im looking at it. 92.7% of first pitch strikes lead to an out or strike one; so that means that less than 8% of first pitch strikes become hits. that stats dont mean a whole lot, especially at the lower levels, although I think you might have the wrong Idea about how much I value them and what Id ever use them for. First Pitch Strike Rate (F-Strike%) doesnt tell us a lot about hitters. He threw 5 unnecessary pitches because he should never have had to pitch to that last batter. Calculation: Harvey's walk rate is down to 2.2 per nine, and he entered Wednesday ranking 18th in the Majors with 66.9-percent first-pitch strikes, according to FanGraphs. Youre correct that walks are definitely a bad thing, but so are some others as well. Roof Slope Calculator | RoofCalc.org Calculation: Its probably a fastball. Many studies have proven that the first pitch in the at bat is the most important one. "[5], Seattle Mariners pitcher Jason Vargas was enjoying the best season of his career through Aug. 11, 2010, with an ERA close to 3.00. If youre making less than 70% contact, youre really going to struggle to hit for average. But something simple like were talking about should really encourage the right behavior. Baseball HQ is intended for entertainment purposes only. 2. Yet again, youre going to get mixed signals from time to time. At that age, they dont have to hit the strike zone as much as keep the ball within a foot of it all the way around. The way I look at it is, if he threw 5 less balls in that stretch, he probably would have retired the same 12 batters with something like 15 less pitches since not only would those balls be strikes or batted balls, he would probably have faced one or two less batters overall. Daniel Hudson, a 23-year-old starting pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks told FoxSports.com on Aug. 6, 2010 that throwing first-pitch strikes has aided in his increased performance. Next time, we move on to pitchers and dive into ERA estimators such as FIP and SIERA. Calculate the roof pitch as the proportion of rise and run: pitch = rise / run = 1.5 / 6 = 25% Recalculate this value into an angle: angle = arctan (pitch) = arctan (0.25) = 14 Finally, you can find the roof pitch in the form of x:12. x = pitch * 12 = 0.25 * 12 = 3 The pitch of your roof is 3:12. F-Strike% (aka First-Pitch Strike Rate; percentage of strikes a batter gets on his first pitch, per plate appearance) SwStr% (aka Swinging Strike Rate; percentage of swings that do not result in contact) Go ahead and pull up any player page on Fangraphs and follow along with this, if you wish. . Get ahead, and go from there When youre falling behind 1-0 as opposed to 0-1, it's a huge difference That's all I try to do is just throw strikes and be aggressive. It seems intuitive that pitchers with a high FpK% would tend to have low control ratesand therefore lower WHIPsthan those with a higher FpK%. So if youre wondering if a pitchers newfound good control is likely to hold, check out his FpK%. Methods 2.1. Batting Strike Rate - A measurement of how frequently the batsman scores runs. But Im not sure walks per inning pitched is the best metric here because Im also concerned about him running full counts before getting an out. martin tool works plane crash. If a batter has been at bat 127 times and in that time has made: 32 hits, 7 walks, been hit by a pitch 2 times, and 3 sacrifice flies, then: 32 hits + 7 walks + 2 hit by a pitch = 41. how to calculate first pitch strike percentage. That translates into 10 more big league wins. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Use your browser's incognito or private browsing mode to avoid participating. Total pitches thrown last year: 732,473. how to calculate first pitch strike percentage. Given the numbers weve seen from him so far, why would you ever throw him a strike? And for the last 6 years, for over 39,000 pitches, the average was 60.9%. Im fine with where things standSouthpawDad has his direction and my contribution was that extent and no more. Whiff rate is just another way of saying swinging strike rate, or the percentage of swings that dont result in contact. An interesting player to finish this off with is the aforementioned Avisail Garcia. I go a bit beyond that definition of a ground ball, in that I use the leading edge of the OF grass as a guide. If youre letting pitches in the strike zone sail right by for called strikes, youre being too passive at the plate. When we go to our classes for umpiring, we are even told to call a larger strike zone. But I would advise to be careful about how you define things, if youre gonna use them to make decisions or judgments. GameChanger Classic automatically calculates a wide variety of baseball & softball statistics for your players throughout the season. Personally, Ive always tracked balls, BIPs, and other strikes. Pitchers need to be able to throw a high percentage of strikes on command. Following a 2009 season in which he won just three games in 14 starts and had an ERA of 4.91, Vargas took a new approach. how to calculate first pitch strike percentage Most of his batters are either a) walks, b) ground-outs or c) strike-outs. In previous installments, we discussed a batters quality of contact, batted ball distribution, familiarized ourselves with various metrics, and applied those things to player splits. November 14, 2008 F-Strike% (first pitch strike percentage): The percentage of plate appearances (for batters) or batters faced (for pitchers) that the first pitch was a strike.. how to calculate first pitch strike percentage. Based on his two outings this spring, he is very difficult to hit, and when the batters do connect, its almost always a ground ball. First pitch strike percentage. Meaning in baseball. MLB. Definition FPS occurs when pitchers throw a strike on the first pitch of an at-bat. As control rate is a significant component in our pitching BPV calculation, it should not come as a surprise that there is a moderate positive correlation between BPV and FpK%. The first pitch strike helps the pitcher get ahead in the count which is key to being successful at a . A pitcher's innings total (or outs induced) doesn't come into play. Here is what Perfect Game is pushing right now in order to standardize stats from org to org. Bowling Average - Puts a player's runs conceded in comparison with the number of wickets they have taken. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. If he achieves that, we can then look at the number of walks allowed and innings pitched per game as secondary metrics. Until then, stay disciplined! Twins pitchers are taught from the very beginning to get ahead in the count, throwing first-pitch strikes as often as possible. I cant speak for other kids, but mine is pretty solid at math. Just to confirm, do you include all non-ball-pitches as strikes in your strike ratio, or is it just the ratio of called and swinging strikes to total pitches? It might be the best pitch they see. Strike percentage | Discuss Fastpitch Softball Community how to calculate first pitch strike percentage For example, a slope 20 feet long that drops by 1 1/2 feet has a percentage pitch of 7.5 percent (1.5 / 20) x 100 = 7.5. This tells you how good a hitter is at laying off of bad pitches, a key to good discipline. If the plate ump calls a strike, foul ball, tipped pitch, the pitch is considered a strike, no matter the location. The league average O-Contact% is around 65%, with the league leader being Andrelton Simmons at 79.9%. how to jailbreak ps vita without computer; why do coloradans hate californians; eternium best mage trinkets; cameron county jail commissary; cotopaxi mesh water bottle sleeve; which football team does boris johnson support The lowest rate went to Joe Mauer at just 4.1%. Especially with younger kids. This table shows the range of control rates (Ctl) over the last four seasons for different levels of FpK%. mitchell henry obituary; housing authority rome, ga; tom brady personality traits; can you drive from glacier national park to banff; why did they replace bertha in fred If I did, there would be 100 walks a games and the games would never get out of the first inning. We found that ball-strike counts that started 0-1 resulted in a walk in just four percent of plate appearances. But overall, the ratio should be 2:1. To find the on base percentage, you add the players hits, hits by pitch, and bases on balls together; you then divide that number by the sum of the at bats, hits by pitch, bases on balls, and sacrifice flies. The table shows a steady erosion in control as a SPs FpK% declines. If you want success on the mound: Where would you like us to send your checklist? 127 at-bats + 7 walks + 2 hit by a pitch + 3 sacrifice flies = 139. After throwing just 51 percent strikes on the first pitch in 2009, that number jumped to 63 percent in 2010, above the MLB average. But they do happen, so all that can be done is try to keep them to a minimum. In 2016, Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs and Johnny Queto of the SF Giants lead the league in first pitch strike percentage, and for Hendricks it was an unforgettable season. Numbers dont lie. How do you calculate pitching statistics? - Sheppard-arts.com We try to throw 67% first pitch strikes (2 out of 3) and place a major emphasis on throwing two of the first three pitches to each batter for a strike. Pitches thrown and swung at are strikes. Heres an example. Professional analysts suggest that the 57% first-pitch strike rate is low, and it is not low on accident. daniel thomas peeweetoms 0 sn phm / 0 . On the other hand, the league leader in O-Swing% was Corey Dickerson at 45.6%. View all-time leaders in on-base percentage at Baseball-Reference.com: single-season, career,year-by-year. So I know that 50 pitches were either strikes swinging, strikes looking, foul balls, or put into play regardless of outcome (other than the occasional hit batsman). The range of percentages for the teams Ive scored is 51.2% at the lowest, and 85.7% at the highest. How can you prove whether or not when batters do connect, its almost always a ground ball? You see that the league average . [citation needed], With the continued interest and development of statistics in the game of baseball, first-pitch strikes have been under the microscope of many fans and sabermetricians (those who study the game based on evidence, mainly stats that measure game activity). At older ages, 3 or 4 inches is the difference between an out and a home run, so that target gets a lot smaller. And Ks to bb goal is 4 to 1. PT TOMORROW: AL Central - Could Csar Hernndez get another shot in Detroit? Therefore, the batter's on-base percentage is 0.295. Divide that number by the total pitches, multiply it by 100 and subtract it from 100%, and you have strike percentage. This reduces the batter's chances of getting on base and provides an advantage for the pitcher during that at-bat. In 2016, he pitched 228 innings again, and struck out his career high 284 batters. All of the intangibles youve listed off swinging, looking, foul ball, tip etc, etc. For example, if a player is hitting .325 but has a 65% contact rate, 50% chase rate, and 15% swinging strike rate, you can tell pretty quickly that said players .325 average should be coming down in a big way. They should both improve if the ball ratio goes down. Value. Zone% (Zone Percentage): Pitches inside the zone divided by total pitches. A GROUND BALL is a batted ball that rolls or bounces close to the ground. He refused to swing at hittable pitches, leading him to a very disappointing season and a wOBA that wound up at a league-average .321. Batting Average - Puts a player's runs in comparison with the number of times they have been out. Major league hitters hit .068 on first pitch strikes (total first pitch strikes which include foul balls, called strikes, & outs divided into hits). FPS stands for First Pitch strike. Now lets look at extreme FpK% changes from one season to the next. 10 extra wins can make the difference between having home field advantage in the playoffs or not even having a playoff spot at all. How to Calculate Roof Pitch in Degrees First, you need to measure the run of your roof. IMHO, invalid numbers are worse than no numbers. Swinging Strike Rate on those pitches: 11.2%. In the case of your friends logic, every breaking ball in the dirt chased by the batter would be a ball. I also suggest tracking the cumulative numbers as well as the strike percentage per game. And know that if I put myself in those good situations, good counts, more or less good things are going to happen."[7]. No bigee. Big FpK% surgers from one year to the next tend to hold on to those gains in the third year or revert to their three-year FpK% average rather than regress to their prior career FpK% norm.

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